Exploring the Risk Factors of Infrastructure PPP Projects for Sustainable Delivery: A Social Network Perspective

Abstract

Due to the relatively long period and large capital flow of public-private partnership (PPP) projects, PPP participants are faced with a complex risk situation impeding the sustainable project delivery. In recent years, risk management of PPP projects has received increasing attention. In this paper, twenty risk factors associated with infrastructure PPP projects were identified by literature review and in-depth case studies. Relationship data for these twenty typical risk factors were obtained through structured interviews. Based on the obtained data, the risk relationship network within infrastructure PPP projects was identified, and the network structure characteristics were analyzed, including individual node attributes and the influence and cohesion of subgroups. The results indicate that key risk factor nodes can form a reaction chain via bridge nodes that can trigger a risk domino effect within PPP projects. Specifically, the key risk factors of PPP projects are divided into two categories, the first of which include risk factors that have powerful and independent influence, such as delay in government approval, government credit, and imperfect legal and regulatory systems. The second category includes risk factors that are highly vulnerable and easily influenced, such as completion risks, insufficient revenue in the market, and fee change. A key risk factor reaction chain is one in which legal change leads to a decline in government credit rating, triggering a contract risk. Twelve bridge nodes were identified that play an important intermediary role in the network, e.g., legal change, public objection, and financing risk. This paper extends the application of social network analysis in PPP projects management research and identifies the key risk factors and crucial factors influencing chain reactions in PPP projects. The results provide a more in-depth understanding of sustainable PPP project management for government agencies and private enterprises.