Prediction of Oil–Water Two-Phase Flow Patterns Based on Bayesian Optimisation of the XGBoost Algorithm

Abstract

With the continuous advancement of petroleum extraction technologies, the importance of horizontal and inclined wells in reservoir exploitation has been increasing. However, accurately predicting oil–water two-phase flow regimes is challenging due to the complexity of subsurface fluid flow patterns. This paper introduces a novel approach to address this challenge by employing extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost, version 2.1.0) optimised through Bayesian techniques (using the Bayesian-optimization library, version 1.4.3) to predict oil–water two-phase flow regimes. The integration of Bayesian optimisation aims to enhance the efficiency of parameter tuning and the precision of predictive models. The methodology commenced with experimental studies utilising a multiphase flow simulation apparatus to gather data across a spectrum of water cut rate, well inclination angles, and flow rates. Flow patterns were meticulously recorded via direct visual inspection, and these empirical datasets were subsequently used to train and validate both the conventional XGBoost model and its Bayesian-optimised counterpart. A total of 64 datasets were collected, with 48 sets used for training and 16 sets for testing, divided in a 3:1 ratio. The findings highlight a marked improvement in predictive accuracy for the Bayesian-optimised XGBoost model, achieving a testing accuracy of 93.8%, compared to 75% for the traditional XGBoost model. Precision, recall, and F1-score metrics also showed significant improvements: precision increased from 0.806 to 0.938, recall from 0.875 to 0.938, and F1-score from 0.873 to 0.938. The training accuracy further supported these results, with the Bayesian-optimised XGBoost (BO-XGBoost) model achieving an accuracy of 0.948 compared to 0.806 for the traditional XGBoost model. Comparative analyses demonstrate that Bayesian optimisation enhanced the predictive capabilities of the algorithm. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis revealed that well inclination angles, water cut rates, and daily flow rates were the most significant features contributing to the predictions. This study confirms the efficacy and superiority of the Bayesian-optimised XGBoost (BO-XGBoost) algorithm in predicting oil–water two-phase flow regimes, offering a robust and effective methodology for investigating complex subsurface fluid dynamics. The research outcomes are crucial in improving the accuracy of oil–water two-phase flow predictions and introducing innovative technical approaches within the domain of petroleum engineering. This work lays a foundational stone for the advancement and application of multiphase flow studies.