Latency Trend Analysis as a Guide to Screening Malignancy Survivors for Second Primary Thyroid Cancer

Abstract

Primary cancer survivors have a higher risk of developing second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC). Patients with SPTC who survived primary malignancies, diagnosed from 1975 to 2016, were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (SEER 18 Registry). A total of 33,551 cancer cases were enrolled in the final analysis. Individuals with a primary malignancy were at a significant 90% increased risk of developing SPTC (SIR = 1.90, 95%CI = 1.86–1.93, p < 0.05) compared to the general population. More than half (54.7%) of SPTC diagnoses were made in the first three years after primary cancer diagnosis, and the most aggressive presentations of SPTC occurred within the first year following malignancy. A latency trend analysis identified persistent high risk for development of SPTC after diagnosis of lymphoma, leukemia, soft tissue tumors, kidney, breast, and uterine cancer; elevated 10-year risk for most cancers such as salivary gland, melanoma, stomach, lung, colon, ovarian, pancreas, prostate, and bladder; and high 5-year risk after cancers such as larynx, oral, orbit, bone, small intestine, and liver. Our latency period model identifying risk according to each type of primary cancer may aid clinicians in identifying at-risk patients to be screened for thyroid cancer and guide them in developing a surveillance plan according to the latency period attributed to a patient’s primary cancer.