Identifying Patients with Polycythemia Vera at Risk of Thrombosis after Hydroxyurea Initiation: The Polycythemia Vera—Advanced Integrated Models (PV-AIM) Project

Abstract

Patients with polycythemia vera (PV) are at significant risk of thromboembolic events (TE). The PV-AIM study used the Optum® de-identified Electronic Health Record dataset and machine learning to identify markers of TE in a real-world population. Data for 82,960 patients with PV were extracted: 3852 patients were treated with hydroxyurea (HU) only, while 130 patients were treated with HU and then changed to ruxolitinib (HU-ruxolitinib). For HU-alone patients, the annualized incidence rates (IR; per 100 patients) decreased from 8.7 (before HU) to 5.6 (during HU) but increased markedly to 10.5 (continuing HU). Whereas for HU-ruxolitinib patients, the IR decreased from 10.8 (before HU) to 8.4 (during HU) and was maintained at 8.3 (after switching to ruxolitinib). To better understand markers associated with TE risk, we built a machine-learning model for HU-alone patients and validated it using an independent dataset. The model identified lymphocyte percentage (LYP), neutrophil percentage (NEP), and red cell distribution width (RDW) as key markers of TE risk, and optimal thresholds for these markers were established, from which a decision tree was derived. Using these widely used laboratory markers, the decision tree could be used to identify patients at high risk for TE, facilitate treatment decisions, and optimize patient management.