Prediction of the Global Distribution of Arhopalus rusticus under Future Climate Change Scenarios of the CMIP6

Abstract

Arhopalus rusticus is a significant forestry pest known for its destructive impact on various host plants. This species, commonly found in coniferous forests across the Northern Hemisphere, has successfully spread to regions like New Zealand, Australia, and South America. This research is based on the known distribution sites of A. rusticus. Projections are made for the potential global distribution of A. rusticus under historical climatic conditions (1970–2000) and future climatic conditions (2081–2100) for the four forcing scenarios of the Coupled Model International Comparison Program 6 (CMIP6). The aim was to analyze the effects of climate change on the distribution range of this pest and its invasion trend in the southern hemisphere, and to support relevant departments in enhancing the effectiveness of forestry pest control strategies. The study utilized the Biomod2 software package in R to compare six models: generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARSs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), classification and regression trees (CTAs), and random forests (RFs) for modeling species distributions. The optimal model was selected based on evaluation indexes such as AUC and TSS. Projections of A. rusticus distribution under historical and future climate scenarios were created. The prediction results were visualized using ArcGIS software (version 10.2) to classify fitness levels and calculate distribution areas. Based on evaluation metrics, random forests (RFs) demonstrated the highest average assessment index scores, indicating high prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.99, TSS = 0.91, Kappa = 0.93). Model predictions revealed that, under historical climatic conditions, A. rusticus was predominantly found in northern Europe, eastern Asia, eastern and southwestern coastal regions of North America, and there were also highly suitable regions in parts of the southern hemisphere, including central and southwestern Argentina, southern Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa. Among these models, each of the CMIP6’s different climate prediction scenarios had a significant impact on the predicted distribution of A. rusticus. The SSP126 scenario depicted the broadest range of suitability, while the SSP585 scenario presented the narrowest and, overall, the extent of highly suitable regions was contracting. Multi-model predictions suggested that the potential distribution area of A. rusticus during the period of 2081–2100 would likely expand compared to that of 1970–2000, ranging from an increase of 1.13% (SSP126) up to 6.61% (SSP585), positively correlating with the level of radiative forcing. Notably, the most substantial growth was observed in potentially low-suitability region, escalating from 1.17% (SSP126) to 5.55% (SSP585). The distribution of A. rusticus shows decreasing trends from coastal areas to inland areas and from high to low level suitability of regions, and further expansion into the southern hemisphere under future climate conditions. Therefore, quarantine efforts at ports of entry should be strengthened in areas that are not currently infested but are at risk of invasion, and precise preventive measures should be strengthened in areas that are at risk of further expansion under future climatic conditions to prevent its spread to inland areas.