Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of projected precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices to evaluate extreme precipitation. Observed datasets and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) simulations are employed to assess the changes during the two main rainfall seasons: March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The results show an increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) and decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) towards the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) relative to the baseline period (1995–2014) in both seasons. Moreover, simple daily intensity (SDII), very wet days (R95 p), very heavy precipitation >20 mm (R20 mm), and total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) demonstrate significant changes during OND compared to the MAM season. The spatial variation for extreme incidences shows likely intensification over Uganda and most parts of Kenya, while a reduction is observed over the Tanzania region. The increase in projected extremes may pose a serious threat to the sustainability of societal infrastructure and ecosystem wellbeing. The results from these analyses present an opportunity to understand the emergence of extreme events and the capability of model outputs from CMIP6 in estimating the projected changes. More studies are recommended to examine the underlying physical features modulating the occurrence of extreme incidences projected for relevant policies.