Effects of Winter Warming on Alpine Permafrost Streamflow in Xinjiang China and Teleconnections with the Siberian High

Abstract

The climatic warming-induced shrinking of permafrost currently encompasses 65% of alpine areas in North China, where a large population relies on its water and land resources. With increasing recognition of the economic and ecological impacts of permafrost basins, forecasts of environmental vulnerability have gained prominence. However, the links between permafrost and winter water resources remain inadequately explored, with most studies focusing on in-situ measurements related to snow cover and frozen layer thickness. Evaluating more complex phenomena, such as the magnitude and persistence of air temperature or low streamflow, depends on numerous climate-driven factors interacting through various subsurface flow mechanisms, basin drainage mechanics, and hydro-climatic correlations at a macroscale. The present study focuses on winter warming, flow increases, and their teleconnections in Xinjiang, China. The research analyzes their links to the atmospheric cycle of the Siberian High (SH) using long-term data spanning 55 years from two large alpine permafrost basins. Changes in variability and correlation persistence were explored for the past decades, and significant variability and connections were constructed using statistical correlation. The years 1980 and 1990 were a turning point when both winter temperatures and winter river flow began to exhibit a notable and consistent upward trend. Subsequently, the period from the mid-1990s to 2013 was characterized by high variability and persistence in these trends. The influence of the SH plays a dominant role in regard to both winter temperatures and river flow, and these variabilities and correlations can be utilized to estimate and predict winter flow in ungauged permafrost rivers in Xinjiang China.