Impact Evaluation Using Nonstationary Parameters for Historical and Projected Extreme Precipitation
Author:
Khan Muhammad Usman1, Ijaz Muhammad Wajid2ORCID, Iqbal Mudassar1ORCID, Aziz Rizwan3, Masood Muhammad1, Tariq Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman14
Affiliation:
1. Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, Punjab, Pakistan 2. Environment Protection Department, Government of the Punjab, Lahore 54000, Punjab, Pakistan 3. College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54590, Punjab, Pakistan 4. College of Engineering, IT & Environment, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT 0810, Australia
Abstract
Recent improvements in time series studies of hydro-climatological variables have led to the belief that the effects of nonstationarity are substantial enough to call the idea of traditional stationary approaches into doubt. The mean and variability of annual and seasonal rainfall in Pakistan are changing due to anthropogenic climate change. With the use of stationary and nonstationary frequency analysis techniques, this study set out to assess the impacts of nonstationarity in Southern Punjab, Pakistan, over the historical period of 1970–2015 and the future periods of 2020–2060 and 2060–2100. Four frequency distributions, namely Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Gumbel, normal, and lognormal, were used. The findings of the nonstationarity impact across Southern Punjab showed different kinds of impacts, such as an increase or reduction in the return level of extreme precipitation. In comparison to other distributions, GEV provided the finest fit. In Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan and DG. Khan, the annual nonstationarity impacts for the 100-year return level were increased up to 15.2%, 8.7%, 58.3%, 18.7%, and 20%, respectively. Moreover, extreme precipitation was found to be increasing during the historical and projected periods, which may increase floods, while less water availability appeared at a seasonal scale (summer) during 2061–2100. The increased nonstationarity effects emphasized adapting these nonstationarities induced by climate change into the design of water resource structures.
Subject
Water Science and Technology,Aquatic Science,Geography, Planning and Development,Biochemistry
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