Impact of Meteorological Factors on Thermokarst Lake Changes in the Beilu River Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China (2000–2016)

Abstract

Variations in weather conditions have a significant impact on thermokarst lakes, such as the sub-lake permafrost thawing caused by global warming. Based on the analysis of Landsat sensor images by ENVI TM 5.3 software, the present study quantitatively determined the area of the thermokarst lakes and the area of the single selected thermokarst lake in the Beilu River Basin from 2000 to 2016. In an effort to explore the reason for changes in the area of thermokarst lakes, this work used Pearson correlation to analyze the relationship between the area of thermokarst lakes and precipitation, wind speed, average temperature, and relative humidity as obtained from the weather station Wudaoliang. Furthermore, this study used multiple linear regression to comprehensively study the correlation between the meteorological factors and changes in the thermokarst lake area. In this case, the total lake-area changes and the single-area changes exhibited unique patterns. The results showed that the total lake area and the single selected lake area increased year by year. Furthermore, the effects of the four meteorological factors defined above on the total area of typical thermokarst lakes are different from the effects of these factors on the single selected thermokarst lake. While the total area of specific thermokarst lakes exhibited a time lag in their response to the four factors, the surface area of the selected thermokarst lake responded to these factors on time. The dominant meteorological factor contributing to total lake area variations of typical thermokarst lakes is the increasing annual average temperature. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the total area and the annual average temperature is 0.717, suggesting a statistically significant correlation between the two factors. For the selected thermokarst lake, the surface area is related to annual average temperature and wind speed. As a result, wind speed and average temperature could infer the variation law on the thermokarst lake due to the linear fitting equation between area and significant meteorological factors.