Prediction of the Atmospheric Dustiness over the Black Sea Region Using the WRF-Chem Model

Abstract

To make a reliable forecast for the level of dust, many external factors such as the wind energy and the soil content in the moisture must be considered. The numerical prediction of the Black sea region’s content of dust is the focus of this study, and for this purpose, the WRF-Chem model is used. The investigation is based on the statistics of the prediction coincidence and the actual result extracted from the data of the backward trajectories of AERONET and aerosol stratification maps in the atmosphere constructed with the help of the CALIPSO satellite. A comprehensive set of data was collected, and a comparative analysis of the results was carried out using machine learning techniques. The investigation identified 89% hits in the prediction of dust events, which is a very satisfactory result.