Affiliation:
1. Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering (DICEA), University of Padua, Via Venezia 1, 30151 Padova, Italy
Abstract
The persistent decline in infrastructure spending, notably within the transportation sector, raises concerns about governments’ capacity to meet the demands of a sustainable growing economy. The incorporation of risk assessment in the analysis and computation of potential cost overruns emerges as an effective and efficient tool, underpinning the economic and financial sustainability of infrastructure expansions. Focusing on the “State Road No. 51 of Alemagna Vittorio Veneto” (SSv-51) variant, this study analyzes and proposes a model to forecast the possible cost overruns of an infrastructure project. The application of the risk assessment tool proposed by the National Anti-Corruption Authority (ANAC) offers valuable insights into potential risks associated with project costs and their valuation. The matrix developed in the current study draws from the ANAC Matrix, which comprises four categories of risk divided into 21 risk types. The selection is based on the project’s characteristics, and a matrix is compiled that forecasts the combination of the probability of risk occurrence and the cost impacts on the project. The proposed risk matrix serves as a practical tool for managing uncertainties and estimating potential cost overruns, estimating ex ante a possible cost increase of 7.53%. This projected increase differs only by 1.34% from the final execution costs, mitigating the unforeseen cost overruns not estimated by the initial project. The proposed risk assessment tool emphasizes the importance of integrating risk management into project planning and execution. The research investigated an applied case utilizing an easily adaptable tool, suitable for potential future implementation, further advancement, and broader testing across various project samples in the future. The study provides a framework to assess and mitigate risks linked to cost overruns. As nations navigate infrastructure development complexities, proactive risk management practices are indispensable for efficient resource management, ensuring the economic and financial sustainability of these complex projects.
Subject
Nature and Landscape Conservation,Ecology,Global and Planetary Change
Reference53 articles.
1. CPT Settori (2023, November 23). Agenzia per la Coesione Territoriale, Sistema dei Conti Pubblici Territoriali e Produzione di Statistiche, Indagini e Ricerche Sulla Conduzione Delle Politiche Pubbliche, Available online: https://www.agenziacoesione.gov.it/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/2-Spesa_CPT_Settori_Vol2_TRASPORTI-1.pdf.
2. European Commission (2019). Mobility and Transport Transport in the European Union Current Trends and Issues, European Commission.
3. Cost-relevance analysis for overrun control;Avotos;Int. J. Proj. Manag.,1983
4. Five things you should know about cost overrun;Flyvbjerg;Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract.,2018
5. Integrated Risk of Progress-Based Costs and Schedule Delays in Construction Projects;Pehlivan;Eng. Manag. J.,2018