Spatial Characteristics of the Non-Grain Production Rate of Cropland and Its Driving Factors in Major Grain-Producing Area: Evidence from Shandong Province, China

Abstract

The non-grain production rate (NGPR) of cropland is a grave threat to global grain and food supply, and has been a hot issue across the world. However, few scholars explored the impacts of the NGPRs of different cropland types, such as those of paddy land and irrigated land in the same region. Thus, according to the third land survey data, this research first estimated the NGPRs of cropland, paddy land, irrigated land, and dry land at different scales in Shandong Province, China in 2019. Then, their spatial characteristics at a county scale were identified by combining the standard deviation ellipse model and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Finally, the potential driving factors of the NGPR of cropland were explored with the geographical weight regression model. Results are as follows: (1) The NGPR of cropland is at relatively lower level in Shandong Province and is dominated by that of irrigated land, and the NGPR of dry land is higher than those of other cropland types; (2) Significant regional differences exist in the NGPR of cropland, with profound severity in the southeast and much lower in the northwest; (3) At the provincial scale, the total power of agricultural machinery per capita and utilization degree of cropland factors can relieve the NGPR of cropland in nearly the entire research area. The proportion of GDP of the primary industry in GDP, urban population rate, and DEM are the main obstacles for NGPR decrease. At the county scale, the influences of driving factors varied across regions. This research can provide targeted and regional differentiated references for policy improvement and NGPR management.