Evolving Temporal–Spatial Trends, Spatial Association, and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Mainland China: Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data from 2006 to 2015

Abstract

Based on provincial panel data from 2005 to 2016, this paper analyzes evolving temporal–spatial trends, spatial correlation and influencing factors of carbon emissions in China. The results show that there is a great heterogeneity in the evolving temporal–spatial trends of carbon emissions among provinces and regions in China, with the heterogeneity in eastern provinces most obvious. At the same time, there exists significant spatial correlation and agglomeration of carbon emissions in 30 provinces. It is found that the distribution characteristics of carbon emissions are affected by various economic and social factors based on the extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) model. Population pressure, affluence, energy intensity, industrial structure, urbanization level and investment in fixed assets can significantly promote the increase of carbon emissions. The technological level and government environmental supervision have significant inhibitory effects on carbon emissions, but foreign direct investment (FDI) has no significant impact. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen environmental supervision and upgrade technology level to promote carbon emission reduction.