Port Competition through Hinterland Connectivity—A Case Study for Potential Hinterland Scope in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) Regarding an Environmental Policy Measure

Abstract

Comparable port efficiency among ports of the European northern range leads to a competitive shift toward hinterland connectivity. North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), having a high population and industry density and an extensive road, rail and waterway network, is prone to such inter port competition due to its proximity. Using a simulation model, the potential hinterland scope by each port and mode in NRW is depicted and a sensitivity analysis with increasing carbon tax rates is conducted. With an increasing tax rate, the scope for central areas of NRW, prone to a shift to rail transport, expands and become heavily contested among multiple ports. A major profiteer of an increase is projected to be the Port of Rotterdam due to its good connectivity at the cost of Antwerp. The market share of German ports is likely to stay the same with a mode shift occurring. Policy measures like a carbon tax not only have an effect on environmentally friendly mode shift but can severely impact the competitive situation of infrastructure components. While achieving the primary goal of transport sustainability, national interests might mandate the economical existence of a functioning maritime port, which leads to the consideration of additional measures when increasing carbon tax rates.