Study of Energy Transition Paths and the Impact of Carbon Emissions under the Dual Carbon Target

Abstract

In recent years, the world’s environmental problems have become increasingly serious, and energy transition and carbon emission issues have gradually gained attention from various countries. China has promulgated several policies and adopted various reform measures to achieve a comprehensive energy transition and carbon neutrality as soon as possible. Therefore, this study makes researches and forecasts the energy transition and carbon emissions in China under the dual carbon target. A LEAP (Long range Energy Alternatives Planning) model is developed to analyze the energy parameters of Beijing under various scenarios and to provide a quantitative analysis basis for the energy transition path. The obtained experimental results indicate that the energy demand under the partial energy transition scenario and full energy transition scenarios are 68.651 million tons of standard coal and 75.759 million tons of standard coal, respectively, forming an effective control, while the carbon emissions both achieve the carbon peak in 2025 at 81.903 million tons and 80.624 million tons respectively, and achieve 46.588 million tons in 2060. The carbon-neutral pathway reaches the carbon peak in 2025, and approaches full energy transition in 2035, and finally reaches the full energy transition control effect in 2060. To date, most of the relevant studies have been conducted in a qualitative way, and the amount of quantitative analysis is insufficient. At the same time, research on the development path specifically at the city level is relatively insufficient as well. Therefore, the present study can provide a theoretical basis for specifying the promotion method of urban energy transformation and the path of carbon emission reduction.