Hydrological Drought Severity in Different Return Periods in Rivers of Ardabil Province, Iran

Abstract

Hydrological drought (HD) characterization with different return periods is essential to appropriately design the best water management practices. In particular, characterizing the interactive relations of discharge, drought, and return periods using a novel triple diagram can deepen the interpretation of regional droughts, which have not been adequately considered, especially in semi-arid areas. Considering the critical role of HD in water exploitation and management in Iran, this study was therefore conducted to analyze the HD in different return periods in rivers of the Ardabil Province (area = 17,953 km2). To this end, the streamflow drought index (SDI) was computed using DrinC software at 1-, 3-, and 6-month time scales for 25 hydrometric stations during 1981–2014. Then, the drought severity was evaluated by CumFreq software in different return periods (2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years). Finally, the relationship between discharge, SDI, and return periods was analyzed using triple diagram models. The results revealed that the drought events had mild (−1 ≤ SDI < 0) and moderate (−1.5 ≤ SDI < −1) severity for most study stations in the study area. The mean values of SDI in the 1-, 3-, and 6-month time scales were 1.08, 0.80, and 0.55, respectively. At all study time scales, the drought severity in both rivers with low and high flows increased with increasing return periods. In such a way, the maximum drought severity has been found for rivers with high flow at a 100-year return period. The current results can be considered a screening tool for the distinctive conservation and directive management of watershed resources.