Spatiotemporal Conflict Analysis and Prediction of Long Time Series Land Cover Changes in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Abstract

Using remote sensing and GIS techniques to monitor long time series land cover changes is of great significance to understanding the impact of human activities on spatiotemporal conflicts and changes in cropland and forest ecosystems in the black soil region of Northeast China. Spatial analysis and dynamic degree were used to analyze the evolutionary process and spatiotemporal association of land cover from 1990 to 2020; the transfer matrix was used to analyze and reveal dynamic conversions of land cover from 1990 to 2000, 2000 to 2010, and 2010 to 2020; and the GM (1,1) model was used to forecast the changes in land cover by 2025 based on historical data. The results indicated that the dominance of forest and cropland did not change from 1990 to 2020, and the average area of forest and cropland was 512,713 km2 and 486,322 km2, respectively. The mutual conversion between cropland, forest, grassland, and bare areas was the most frequent. The area of cropland converted into forest and grassland was 14,167 km2 and 25,217 km2, respectively, and the area of forest and grassland converted into cropland was 27,682 km2 and 23,764 km2, respectively, from 1990 to 2000. A similar law of land cover change was also presented from 2000 to 2020. In addition, the predicted values of cropland, forest, grassland, shrubland, wetland, water bodies, impervious surfaces, and bare areas were 466,942 km2, 499,950 km2, 231,524 km2, 1329 km2, 11,775 km2, 18,453 km2, 30,549 km2, and 189,973 km2, respectively, by 2025. The maximum and minimum residuals between the predicted and actual values were 6241 km2 and −156 km2 from 1990 to 2020. The evaluation results of the GM (1,1) model showed that all of the evaluation indices were within an acceptable range, and that the posteriori error ratio and class ratio dispersion were both less than 0.25. Through comparison with other studies, this study is not only able to provide some experience for further analyzing the spatial and temporal changes in land cover and its future prediction but also provide a basis for comprehensive management in Northeast China.