Analysis of the Impact of Atmospheric Models on the Orbit Prediction of Space Debris

Abstract

Atmospheric drag is an important influencing factor in precise orbit determination and the prediction of low-orbit space debris. It has received widespread attention. Currently, calculating atmospheric drag mainly relies on different atmospheric density models. This experiment was designed to explore the impact of different atmospheric density models on the orbit prediction of space debris. In the experiment, satellite laser ranging data published by the ILRS (International Laser Ranging Service) were used as the basis for the precise orbit determination for space debris. The prediction error of space debris orbits at different orbital heights using different atmospheric density models was used as a criterion to evaluate the impact of atmospheric density models on the determination of space-target orbits. Eight atmospheric density models, DTM78, DTM94, DTM2000, J71, RJ71, JB2006, MSIS86, and NRLMSISE00, were compared in the experiment. The experimental results indicated that the DTM2000 atmospheric density model is best for determining and predicting the orbits of LEO (low-Earth-orbit) targets.