Flash Flood Susceptibility Assessment Based on Geodetector, Certainty Factor, and Logistic Regression Analyses in Fujian Province, China

Abstract

Flash floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters in Fujian Province, China, and they seriously threaten the safety of infrastructure, natural ecosystems, and human life. Thus, recognition of possible flash flood locations and exploitation of more precise flash flood susceptibility maps are crucial to appropriate flash flood management in Fujian. Based on this objective, in this study, we developed a new method of flash flood susceptibility assessment. First, we utilized double standards, including the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) and Geodetector to screen the assessment indicator. Second, in order to consider the weight of each classification of indicator and the weights of the indicators simultaneously, we used the ensemble model of the certainty factor (CF) and logistic regression (LR) to establish a frame for the flash flood susceptibility assessment. Ultimately, we used this ensemble model (CF-LR), the standalone CF model, and the standalone LR model to prepare flash flood susceptibility maps for Fujian Province and compared their prediction performance. The results revealed the following. (1) Land use, topographic relief, and 24 h precipitation (H24_100) within a 100-year return period were the three main factors causing flash floods in Fujian Province. (2) The area under the curve (AUC) results showed that the CF-LR model had the best precision in terms of both the success rate (0.860) and the prediction rate (0.882). (3) The assessment results of all three models showed that between 22.27% and 29.35% of the study area have high and very high susceptibility levels, and these areas are mainly located in the east, south, and southeast coastal areas, and the north and west low mountain areas. The results of this study provide a scientific basis and support for flash flood prevention in Fujian Province. The proposed susceptibility assessment framework may also be helpful for other natural disaster susceptibility analyses.