Exploring the Impact of “Double Cycle” and Industrial Upgrading on Sustainable High-Quality Economic Development: Application of Spatial and Mediation Models

Abstract

In the context of the integration into the world economy, the domestic and international cycles of the economy constitute the basic pattern of economic operation. This pattern is closely related to the industrial structure, and obviously it can affect quality of the economic development. The Chinese government has put forward an international and domestic dual cycle strategy for reinforcing an environmentally sustainable high-quality economic development. Similarly, it seems critically important to explore what impact the “dual cycle strategy” and industrial upgrading will have on the environmentally sustainable high-quality economic development. To do so, this paper adopted a dataset ranging from the year 2004 to 2019 from a regional perspective in China, and an empirical research is carried out based on the spatial Dubin model-mediation effect model to analyze the impact of “dual cycle strategy” and industrial upgrading on environmentally sustainable high-quality economic development. The results of the study show that the rising industrial structure effect has emerged prominently. Both the “dual cycle” and industrial structure upgrading have a positive spillover effect on environmentally sustainable high-quality economic development. Further, the direct effect of domestic circulation is significant, but the indirect effect is not obvious. In addition, we found that the direct and indirect effects of international circulation are both significantly positive; industrial upgrading has a partial mediating effect in the “double cycle”. The study holds promising implications for a policy development.