Capacity of Satellite-Based and Reanalysis Precipitation Products in Detecting Long-Term Trends across Mainland China

Abstract

Despite numerous assessments of satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation across the globe, few studies have been conducted based on the precipitation linear trend (LT), particularly during daytime and nighttime, when there are different precipitation mechanisms. Herein, we first examine LTs for the whole day (LTwd), daytime (LTd), and nighttime (LTn) over mainland China (MC) in 2003–2017, with sub-daily observations from a dense rain gauge network. For MC and ten Water Resources Regions (WRRs), annual and seasonal LTwd, LTd, and LTn were generally positive but with evident regional differences. Subsequently, annual and seasonal LTs derived from six satellite-based and six reanalysis popular precipitation products were evaluated using metrics of correlation coefficient (CC), bias, root-mean-square-error (RMSE), and sign accuracy. Finally, metric-based optimal products (OPs) were identified for MC and each WRR. Values of each metric for annual and seasonal LTwd, LTd, or LTn differ among products; meanwhile, for any single product, performance varied by season and time of day. Correspondingly, the metric-based OPs varied among regions and seasons, and between daytime and nighttime, but were mainly characterized by OPs of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42, ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA)-Interim, and Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)-2. In particular, the CC-based (RMSE-based) OPs in southern and northern WRRs were generally TRMM3B42 and MERRA-2, respectively. These findings imply that to investigate precipitation change and obtain robust related conclusions using precipitation products, comprehensive evaluations are necessary, due to variation in performance within one year, one day and among regions for different products. Additionally, our study facilitates a valuable reference for product users seeking reliable precipitation estimates to examine precipitation change across MC, and an insight (i.e., capacity in detecting LTs, including daytime and nighttime) for developers improving algorithms.