Analysis of Vegetation Dynamics and Driving Mechanisms on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the Context of Climate Change

Abstract

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (TP) is susceptible to climate change and human activities, which brought about drastic alterations in vegetation on the plateau. However, the trends and driving mechanisms of vegetation changes remain unclear. Therefore, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of vegetation and the consistency of dynamic trends in the TP from 2000 to 2020 in this study. The independent contributions and interactive factors of natural and human activities on vegetation changes were investigated through the Geodetector model. The drivers of vegetation under different dry–wet zones and precipitation gradients were quantitatively separated, and the internal mechanisms of vegetation changes were discussed from multiple perspectives. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the NDVI had an overall increasing trend, with an increasing rate of 0.0027 a−1, and the spatial pattern was different, increasing gradually from the northwest to the southeast. Consistent improvement occurred in the central and southeastern parts of the TP, while the western and northern parts consistently deteriorated. The annual mean precipitation had the greatest explanatory power for vegetation changes (0.781). The explanatory power of the integrated effects between two factors was greater than that of individual factors. The integrated effects between annual mean precipitation and other driving factors had the strongest explanatory power on vegetation variations. The driving mechanisms of vegetation dynamics varied among different dry–wet zones, and the vegetation growth was more sensitive to the response of precipitation in arid and semi-arid climate zones. This study enhances our understanding of the intrinsic mechanisms of vegetation changes on the plateau, which can provide a reference for ecological conservation, and has implications for further prediction and assessment of vegetation ecosystem stability.