Abstract
This study presents an updated assessment of the projected climate change over Greece in the near future (2021–2050) and at the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) (EOC), relative to the reference period 1971–2000, and focusing on seasonal crop-specific climatic indices. The indices include days (d) with: a maximum daily near-surface temperature (TASMAX) > 30 °C in Spring, a TASMAX > 35 °C in Summer (hot days), a minimum daily near-surface temperature (TASMIN) < 0 °C (frost days) in Spring, a TASMIN > 20 °C (tropical nights) in Spring–Summer and the daily precipitation (PR) > 1 mm (wet days) in Spring and Summer covering the critical periods in which wheat, tomatoes, cotton, potato, grapes, rice and olive are more sensitive to water and/or temperature stress. The analysis is based on an ensemble of 11 EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations under the influence of a strong, a moderate, and a no mitigation Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). The indices related to TASMAX are expected to increase by up to 11 days in Spring and 40 days in Summer, tropical nights to rise by up to 50 days, frost days to decrease by up to 20 days, and wet days to decline by up to 9 days in Spring and Summer, at the EOC with an RCP8.5. The increased heat stress and water deficit are expected to have negative crop impacts, in contrast to the positive effects anticipated by the decrease in frost days. This study constitutes a further step towards identifying the commodities and/or regions in Greece which, under climate change, are or will be significantly impacted.
Funder
Public Investment Program of Greece, General Secretary of Research and Technology/Ministry of Development and Investments, Greece
Subject
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment,Geography, Planning and Development,Building and Construction
Reference55 articles.
1. (2022, September 23). Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Greece. Available online: https://www.mfa.gr/missionsabroad/en/about-greece/food-and-gastronomy/facts-and-figures.html.
2. Eurostat (2022, November 30). Provisional Results for the 2016 EU Farm Structure Survey, Press Release. Available online: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9028470/5-28062018-AP-EN.pdf/8d97f49b-81c0-4f87-bdde-03fe8c3b8ec2.
3. McArthur, J.W. (2016). COP21 at Paris: What to Expect, Global Economy and Development, Brookings Institution. The issues, the actors, and the road ahead on climate change.
4. The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Romania. A country-scale assessment based on the relationship between climatic water balance and maize yields in recent decades;Patriche;Agric. Syst.,2020
5. Extreme weather events risk to crop-production and the adaptation of innovative management strategies to mitigate the risk: A retrospective survey of rural Punjab, Pakistan;Elahi;Technovtion,2022
Cited by
4 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献