A National and Regional Greenhouse Gas Breakeven Assessment of EVs across North America

Abstract

Electrification is considered key to decarbonizing the transport sector. While electric vehicles (EVs) lack tailpipe emissions, battery and electricity production can lead to significant emissions. This study analysed whether EVs can effectively mitigate GHG emissions in North America, by calculating two GHG breakeven indicators for EVs and comparing them to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). EV life cycle emissions were compared to those of ICEVs in Canada, Mexico, and the USA. In addition, this study considered potential national electricity grids evolutions and improvements in battery production and vehicle efficiency. The study estimated that EVs in Canada, the USA, and Mexico would see environmental benefits after 18.0, 25.1, and 25.6 thousand driven kilometres, respectively, as compared to petrol vehicles. Regionally, Québec had the lowest emissions (12.9 tCO2eq) for EVs while Iowa (62.0) had the highest. In several states, EVs did not outperform ICEVs. Emissions from EVs are expected to decrease in coming years as the carbon intensity of electrical grids decreases. Policies should consider prioritising grid decarbonization over EV uptake where regional grid GHG intensity is high. This work provides one of the first regional and international case studies determining the environmental breakeven points of EVs when considering trade.