Multimodel Ensemble Projections of Wave Climate in the Western North Pacific Using CMIP6 Marine Surface Winds

Abstract

For decades, the western North Pacific (WNP) has been commonly indicated as a region with high vulnerability to oceanic and atmospheric hazards. This phenomenon can be observed through general circulation model (GCM) output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The CMIP consists of a collection of ensemble data as well as marine surface winds for the projection of the wave climate. Wave climate projections based on the CMIP dataset are necessary for ocean studies, marine forecasts, and coastal development over the WNP region. Numerous studies with earlier phases of CMIP are abundant, but studies using CMIP6 as the recent dataset for wave projection is still limited. Thus, in this study, wave climate projections with WAVEWATCH III are conducted to investigate how wave characteristics in the WNP will have changed in 2050 and 2100 compared to those in 2000 with atmospheric forcings from CMIP6 marine surface winds. The wave model runs with a 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution in spherical coordinates and a 10-min time step. A total of eight GCMs from the CMIP6 dataset are used for the marine surface winds modelled over 3 h for 2050 and 2100. The simulated average wave characteristics for 2000 are validated with the ERA5 Reanalysis wave data showing good consistency. The wave characteristics in 2050 and 2100 show that significant decreases in wave height, a clockwise shift in wave direction, and the mean wave period becomes shorter relative to those in 2000.