A Zero-Order Flood Damage Model for Regional-Scale Quick Assessments

Abstract

Quantitative data on observed flood ground effects are precious information to assess current risk levels and to improve our capability to forecast future flood damage, with the final aim of defining effective prevention policies and checking their success. This paper presents the first collection and analysis of flood damage claims produced in Italy in the past 7 years since a homogeneous national procedure for damage recognition became available. The database currently contains more than 70,000 claims referring to significant events and shows good homogeneity on the intensity of the related phenomena. We then propose an empirical model, based on observed data, to allow for a quick estimation of direct damage to private assets (i.e., residential buildings), based only on the knowledge of the perimeter of the flooded area. Single model calibration was performed at the multi-regional scale, focused on southern Italy. Model validation shows encouraging performances, considering the considerable natural uncertainty that characterizes this type of estimate. The procedure is of great interest when there is a need to evaluate, however roughly, flood damage in the immediacy of the event to assess the extent of the flood effects and to plan support actions for the affected communities.