Development and Assessment of Water-Level Prediction Models for Small Reservoirs Using a Deep Learning Algorithm

Abstract

In this study, we aimed to develop and assess a hydrological model using a deep learning algorithm for improved water management. Single-output long short-term memory (LSTM SO) and encoder-decoder long short-term memory (LSTM ED) models were developed, and their performances were compared using different input variables. We used water-level and rainfall data from 2018 to 2020 in the Takayama Reservoir (Nara Prefecture, Japan) to train, test, and assess both models. The root-mean-squared error and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency were estimated to compare the model performances. The results showed that the LSTM ED model had better accuracy. Analysis of water levels and water-level changes presented better results than the analysis of water levels. However, the accuracy of the model was significantly lower when predicting water levels outside the range of the training datasets. Within this range, the developed model could be used for water management to reduce the risk of downstream flooding, while ensuring sufficient water storage for irrigation, because of its ability to determine an appropriate amount of water for release from the reservoir before rainfall events.