Effect of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation on Changes in Climatic Conditions and River Flow in Poland

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to find connections between the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (NA THC), climate elements, such as cloud cover, precipitation, air temperature, sunshine duration, and relative humidity, and flow of rivers in Poland. The intensity of NA THC was characterized by the DG3L index, which was established to assess changes in the amount of heat transported by NA THC along with the transport of water to the Arctic. The paper explains and discusses the mechanism of impact of the NA THC changeability on the elements of the catchment water balance variability. The positive and negative phases of the DG3L index are strongly correlated with the heat anomalies in the upper layer of the North Atlantic waters. The obtained results show that changes of NA THC have significant impact on weather conditions and selected climate elements in Poland. Statistically significant positive correlations were found between the DG3L index and average annual air temperatures, particularly in April, July, and August, while negative between the DG3L index and the total cloud cover. Consequently, in the years with the positive values of the DG3L index, there are favorable conditions for the strong increase in evaporation and evapotranspiration from the ground surface. This has impact on flow of rivers in Poland, which shows considerable regional differences.