Estimation of Origin-Destination Flows of Passenger Cars in 1925 in Old Tokyo City, Japan

Abstract

In recent years, surveys of personal travel behavior have been conducted around the world and these surveys have been used for understanding the characteristics of people flow. However, it is impossible to acquire people and traffic flows for the modern era (1868–1945). In modern era Japan, some traffic surveys were conducted, and that records still persist. The purpose of this study was to estimate origin-destination (OD) flows in old Tokyo in 1925 based on the historical traffic census record. In this study, OD flows were estimated using an absorbing Markov chain model, which is a simple model based on traffic generation and transition probabilities. Transition probabilities in unobserved nodes were estimated using genetic algorithms (GA). The result of OD distributions is clearly different in the eastern part of Tokyo City, the Shitamachi area, from the western part, the Yamanote area. The traffic was very busy in Shitamachi, an area which included terminal stations and a central business district. In Yamanote, major traffic generation and absorption points were distributed along the main streets to the Shinjuku or Shibuya areas. These results are affected by the distribution of main roads and the locations of residences or workplaces of car owners.