Evaluation of Prognostic Factors of Severity in Acute Biliary Pancreatitis

Abstract

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory disorder of the pancreas that, when classified as severe, is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Promptly identifying the severity of AP is of extreme importance for improving clinical outcomes. The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of serological biomarkers, ratios, and multifactorial scores in patients with acute biliary pancreatitis and to identify the best predictors. In this observational and prospective study, the biomarkers, ratios and multifactorial scores were evaluated on admission and at 48 h of the symptom onset. On admission, regarding the AP severity, the white blood count (WBC) and neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and regarding the mortality, the WBC and the modified Marshall score (MMS) showed the best predictive values. At 48 h, regarding the AP severity, the hepcidin, NLR, systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI) and MMS and regarding the mortality, the NLR, hepcidin and the bedside index for severity in AP (BISAP) score, showed the best predictive values. The present study enabled the identification, for the first time, of SIRI as a new prognostic tool for AP severity, and validated hepcidin and the NLR as better prognostic markers than C-reactive protein (CRP) at 48 h of symptom onset.