The MS-RadarFormer: A Transformer-Based Multi-Scale Deep Learning Model for Radar Echo Extrapolation

Abstract

As a spatial–temporal sequence prediction task, radar echo extrapolation aims to predict radar echoes’ future movement and intensity changes based on historical radar observations. Two urgent issues still need to be addressed in deep learning radar echo extrapolation models. First, the predicted radar echo sequences often exhibit echo-blurring phenomena. Second, over time, the output echo intensities from the model gradually weaken. In this paper, we propose a novel model called the MS-RadarFormer, a Transformer-based multi-scale deep learning model for radar echo extrapolation, to mitigate the two above issues. We introduce a multi-scale design in the encoder–decoder structure and a Spatial–Temporal Attention block to improve the precision of radar echoes and establish long-term dependencies of radar echo features. The model uses a non-autoregressive approach for echo prediction, avoiding accumulation errors during the recursive generation of future echoes. Compared to the baseline, our model shows an average improvement of 15.8% in the critical success index (CSI), an average decrease of 8.3% in the false alarm rate (FAR), and an average improvement of 16.2% in the Heidke skill score (HSS).