Carbohydrate Intake Levels and the Risk of Metabolic Syndrome in Korean Populations: A Prospective Study

Abstract

In Korea and other Asian countries, traditional high-carbohydrate diets are increasingly associated with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its complications. As dietary patterns shift, there is a growing need to assess the effect of these changes on health outcomes related to MetS. This study aimed to investigate the prospective relationship between carbohydrate consumption and the risk of MetS and its components. We analyzed data from 7902 participants from the Korean Association Resource, part of the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study Dietary intakes, including carbohydrates and fiber, were assessed using a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire, allowing for the calculation of the proportion of total energy from carbohydrates (P_CARB) and the carbohydrate-to-fiber ratio to assess carbohydrate quality. Blood samples were collected after at least eight hours of fasting for laboratory analysis. We employed Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, focusing on the relationship between the P_CARB and the risk of developing MetS and its individual components, while adjusting for carbohydrate quality. In the fully adjusted model, which accounted for carbohydrate quality as a covariate, individuals in the highest percentile of the P_CARB showed a significantly increased risk of MetS, hypertriglyceridemia, hypo-high density lipoprotein cholesterolemia, dyslipidemia, and high blood pressure, compared to those in the lowest P_CARB group. Spline curve analyses indicated that the risks for MetS and its components consistently escalated with increasing P_CARB, with all p-values for nonlinearity exceeding 0.05. The findings suggest that higher levels of P_CARB are associated with an increased risk of MetS and related conditions, except for high fasting glucose. These results highlight the importance of dietary awareness and potential adjustments for populations consuming high-carbohydrate diets.