Significant Disparity in Spatiotemporal Changes of Terrestrial Evapotranspiration across Reanalysis Datasets in China from 1982 to 2020

Abstract

Due to limited observational data, there remains considerable uncertainty in the estimation and spatiotemporal variations of land surface evapotranspiration (ET). Reanalysis products, with their advantages of high spatiotemporal resolution, global coverage, and long-term data availability, have emerged as powerful tools for studying ET. Nevertheless, the accuracy of reanalysis ET products varies among different products and the reasons for these accuracy differences have not been thoroughly investigated. This study evaluates the ability of different reanalysis ET products to reproduce the spatiotemporal patterns and long-term trends of ET in China, using remote sensing and water-balance-derived ET as reference. We investigate the possible reasons for their disparity by analyzing the three major climatic factors influencing ET (precipitation, solar radiation, and temperature). The findings reveal that compared to the water balance ET, the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) product is capable of reproducing the mean, interannual variability, and trends of ET, making it suitable for validating reanalysis ET products. In comparison to GLEAM ET, all reanalysis ET products exhibit consistent climatology and spatial distribution but show a clear overestimation, with multi-year averages being overestimated by 16–40%. There are significant differences among the reanalysis products in terms of interannual variability, long-term trends, and attribution. Within the common period of 2003–2015, GLEAM and water balance ET products demonstrate consistent increasing trends. The second-generation Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2) and the offline (land-only) replay of MERRA (MERRA-Land) could produce similar increasing trends because of the consistent precipitation trends with observed precipitation. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5) and ERA5-Land cannot capture the consistent increasing trends as they obtain decreasing precipitation. These findings have significant implications for the development of reanalysis products.