Perceived Trip Time Reliability and Its Cost in a Rail Transit Network

Abstract

Time reliability in a Rail Transit Network (RTN) is usually measured according to clock-based trip time, while the travel conditions such as travel comfort and convenience cannot be reflected by clock-based trip time. Here, the crowding level of trains, seat availability, and transfer times are considered to compute passengers’ Perceived Trip Time (PTT). Compared with the average PTT, the extra PTT needed for arriving reliably, which equals the 95th percentile PTT minus the average PTT, is converted into the monetary cost for estimating Perceived Time Reliability Cost (PTRC). The ratio of extra PTT needed for arriving reliably to the average PTT referring to the buffer time index is proposed to measure Perceived Time Reliability (PTR). To overcome the difficulty of obtaining passengers’ PTT who travel among rail transit modes, a Monte Carlo simulation is applied to generated passengers’ PTT for computing PTR and PTRC. A case study of Chengdu’s RTN shows that the proposed metrics and method measure the PTR and PTRC in an RTN effectively. PTTR, PTRC, and influential factors have significant linear relations among them, and the obtained linear regression models among them can guide passengers to travel reliably.