Model Uncertainty for Displacement Prediction for Laterally Loaded Piles on Granular Fill

Abstract

Engineers are often concerned with the capability of a particular mathematical model to simulate a real-scale phenomenon. Model uncertainty is a relevant issue in order to assess the safety factor of a particular structure. In this paper, large-scale laterally loaded pile outputs are compared to predictions using well-known formulations. In this way, an insight on model uncertainty is presented. Both p-y method proposed by the API, and the horizontal reaction modulus proposed in many codes are used to predict displacement. Both are correlated to the site investigation. In this way, engineers are provided with a critical view of the available prediction methods to assess laterally loaded pile behaviour.