Impact of Demographic Structure on Economic Development of Ukrainian Coastal Regions

Abstract

The main aim of our paper is to study peculiarities of two periods, i.e., the pre-conflict period (2004–2013) and conflict period (2014–2018), in the context of the impact of the demographic structure of the population on the economic growth and development of coastal regions of Ukraine. In the first step of the analysis, we investigate the relationship between the demographic shifts and selected economic indicators, using the Pearson’s correlation coefficient. In the next step of the analysis, we focus on the quantification of the impact of demographic indicators on the economic variables, based on the panel model with fixed effects. The received results confirm that the influence of the demographic stricture on the economic state of coastal regions changed significantly in the conflict period in comparison with the pre-conflict period, especially concerning income, unemployment, and the openness of the economy. Additionally, our findings show that while economic differences existed between the Azov Sea regions and the Black Sea regions in the pre-conflict period, they disappeared due to the economic deterioration of the Azov Sea regions during the conflict period. It is concluded that war affects adversely the population’s demographic structure, which inhibits the growth and economic development of Ukrainian coastal regions.