A System Dynamics Model for Urban Residential Building Stock towards Sustainability: The Case of Jinan, China

Abstract

Resource and environmental issues related to urban building systems have recently become a hot research topic in the field of urban environmental management research. Taking Jinan city as an example, this paper establishes a system dynamic model for an urban residential building stock system. The simulated results show that the urban residential building stock will be 1.99 × 108 m2 in 2050; and the annual total demolition buildings will be at 3.36 × 106 m2 in 2082. Policy measures were developed based on four important action fields such as per capita floor area (PCFA), the building structure proportion of new construction, lifetime of the residential building, and the recycling of the C&D waste. Among these approaches, the set of policy measures focusing on the recycling of C&D waste appears to be more effective in reducing environmental and resource impacts than the other three fields. It is also found that the recycling of brick and concrete waste plays a considerable role in reducing environment and resource impacts due to the development of urban residential building stock with the lapse of time.