Predictive Performance and Optimal Cut-Off Points of Blood Pressure for Identifying Arteriosclerosis among Adults in Eastern China

Abstract

This study aimed to assess the predictive performance and establish optimal cut-off points of blood pressure for identifying arteriosclerosis in eastern Chinese adults. Brachial–ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) was utilized to evaluate arteriosclerosis. The predictive performance of blood pressure for arteriosclerosis was determined by the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristics; the optimal blood pressure cut-off points were determined by Youden’s index. A logistic regression model was used to acquire the odds ratio (OR) of blood pressure for arteriosclerosis. The AUCs of blood pressure for identifying arteriosclerosis were 0.868 (95%CI: 0.860–0.875) for systolic blood pressure (SBP) and 0.835 (95%CI: 0.827–0.843) for diastolic blood pressure (DBP), both p < 0.01. The AUCs of women were higher than that of men (0.903 vs. 0.819 for SBP; 0.847 vs. 0.806 for DBP; Z test p < 0.05). The AUCs in the 18–39.9-years group were higher than that in the 40–59.9-years and 60–84-years groups (0.894 vs. 0.842 and 0.818 for SBP; 0.889 vs. 0.818 and 0.759 for DBP; Z test p < 0.05). The total optimal cut-off points of blood pressure for predicting arteriosclerosis were 123.5/73.5 mmHg (SBP/DBP) overall; 123.5/73.5 and 126.5/79.5 mmHg for women and men, respectively; and 120.5/73.5, 123.5/76.5, and 126.5/75.5 mmHg for 18–39.9-years, 40–59.9-years, and 60–84-years groups, respectively. Blood pressure indexes had a high predictive performance for identifying arteriosclerosis with the optimal cut-off point of 123.5/73.5 mmHg (SBP/DBP) in eastern Chinese adults. Women or the younger population have a higher predictive performance and lower cut-off points to identify arteriosclerosis.