Dynamical Analysis of Universal Masking on the Pandemic

Abstract

We investigate the impact of the delay in compulsory mask wearing on the spread of COVID-19 in the community, set in the Singapore context. By using modified SEIR-based compartmental models, we focus on macroscopic population-level analysis of the relationships between the delay in compulsory mask wearing and the maximum infection, through a series of scenario-based analysis. Our analysis suggests that collective masking can meaningfully reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in the community, but only if implemented within a critical time window of approximately before 80–100 days delay after the first infection is detected, coupled with strict enforcement to ensure compliance throughout the duration. We also identify a delay threshold of about 100 days that results in masking enforcement having little significant impact on the Maximum Infected Values. The results therefore highlight the necessity for rapid implementation of compulsory mask wearing to curb the spread of the pandemic.