Developing a Stacked Ensemble-Based Classification Scheme to Predict Second Primary Cancers in Head and Neck Cancer Survivors

Abstract

Despite a considerable expansion in the present therapeutic repertoire for other malignancy managements, mortality from head and neck cancer (HNC) has not significantly improved in recent decades. Moreover, the second primary cancer (SPC) diagnoses increased in patients with HNC, but studies providing evidence to support SPCs prediction in HNC are lacking. Several base classifiers are integrated forming an ensemble meta-classifier using a stacked ensemble method to predict SPCs and find out relevant risk features in patients with HNC. The balanced accuracy and area under the curve (AUC) are over 0.761 and 0.847, with an approximately 2% and 3% increase, respectively, compared to the best individual base classifier. Our study found the top six ensemble risk features, such as body mass index, primary site of HNC, clinical nodal (N) status, primary site surgical margins, sex, and pathologic nodal (N) status. This will help clinicians screen HNC survivors before SPCs occur.