A Predictive Model to Analyze the Factors Affecting the Presence of Traumatic Brain Injury in the Elderly Occupants of Motor Vehicle Crashes Based on Korean In-Depth Accident Study (KIDAS) Database

Abstract

Traumatic brain injury (TBI), also known as intracranial injury, occurs when an external force injures the brain. This study aimed to analyze the factors affecting the presence of TBI in the elderly occupants of motor vehicle crashes. We defined elderly occupants as those more than 55 years old. Damage to the vehicle was presented using the Collision Deformation Classification (CDC) code by evaluation of photos of the damaged vehicle, and a trauma score was used for evaluation of the severity of the patient’s injury. A logistic regression model was used to identify factors affecting TBI in elderly occupants and a predictive model was constructed. We performed this study retrospectively and gathered all the data under the Korean In-Depth Accident Study (KIDAS) investigation system. Among 3697 patients who visited the emergency room in the regional emergency medical center due to motor vehicle crashes from 2011 to 2018, we analyzed the data of 822 elderly occupants, which were divided into two groups: the TBI patients (N = 357) and the non-TBI patients (N = 465). According to multiple logistic regression analysis, the probabilities of TBI in the elderly caused by rear-end (OR = 1.833) and multiple collisions (OR = 1.897) were higher than in frontal collision. Furthermore, the probability of TBI in the elderly was 1.677 times higher in those with unfastened seatbelts compared to those with fastened seatbelts (OR = 1.677). This study was meaningful in that it incorporated several indicators that affected the occurrence of the TBI in the elderly occupants. In addition, it was performed to determine the probability of TBI according to sex, vehicle type, seating position, seatbelt status, collision type, and crush extent using logistic regression analysis. In order to derive more precise predictive models, it would be needed to analyze more factors for vehicle damage, environment, and occupant injury in future studies.