Prediction of Offensive Possession Ends in Elite Basketball Teams

Abstract

In basketball, the end of the ball possession has been described as one of the most important determinants of successful offensive play by a team. The present study aimed to: (i) investigate outcomes according to the play types of ends of the ball possession; (ii) find the most efficient ball possessions during the game; (iii) predict most efficient ends of the ball possession by time in an elite basketball competition. The sample was composed of 38,640 situations of ends of the ball possession from 240 games of the 2017–2018 regular season of the men’s Euroleague that were quantitatively analyzed. According to the results, the predictive model can be used in modern basketball. The most efficient ends of the ball possession are the 2-point field goals on the fast break (78.2%), cuts (64.8%), pick and roll (P&R) screener (61.5%), and transition and offensive rebound (57.4%) situations. This information allows a better collective understanding of basketball, and it could be a great tool to use for coaches to prove which tactical solutions are to be considered when improving offense and defense strategies. It also contributes to the design of precise practice tasks of the coach that improve the game.