Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Scrub Typhus in Jiangxi Province, China, from 2006 to 2018

Abstract

Background: Scrub typhus (ST) has become a significant potential threat to public health in Jiangxi. Further investigation is essential for the control and management of the spatiotemporal patterns of the disease. Methods: Time-series analyses, spatial distribution analyses, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and space-time scan statistics were performed to detect spatiotemporal dynamics distribution of the incidence of ST. Results: From 2006 to 2018, a total of 5508 ST cases occurred in Jiangxi, covering 79 counties. The number of ST cases increased continuously from 2006 to 2018, and there was obvious seasonality during the variation process in each year, with a primary peak in autumn (September to October) and a smaller peak in summer (June to August). From 2007 to 2018, the spatial distribution of the ST epidemic was significant heterogeneity, and Nanfeng, Huichang, Xunwu, Anyuan, Longnan, and Xinfeng were hotspots. Seven spatiotemporal clusters were observed using Kulldorff’s space-time scan statistic, and the most likely cluster only included one county, Nanfeng county. The high-risk areas of the disease were in the mountainous, hilly region of Wuyi and the southern mountainous region of Jiangxi. Conclusions: Targeted interventions should be executed in high-risk regions for the precise prevention and control of ST.