Estimating the Total Number of Residential Fire-Related Incidents and Underreported Residential Fire Incidents in New South Wales, Australia by Using Linked Administrative Data

Abstract

The rate of fires, and particularly residential fires, is a serious concern in industrialized countries. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the reported numbers of residential fire incidents as official figures are based on fires reported to fire response agencies only. This population-based study aims to quantify the total number of residential fire incidents regardless of reporting status. The cohort comprised linked person-level data from Fire and Rescue New South Wales (FRNSW) and health system and death records. It included all persons residing at a residential address in New South Wales, Australia, that experienced a fire between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2014. The capture-recapture method was used to estimate the underreporting number of residential fire-related incidents. Over the study period, 43,707 residential fire incidents were reported to FRNSW, and there were 2795 residential fire-related health service utilizations, of which 2380 were not reported. Using the capture-recapture method, the total number of residential fire incidents was estimated at 267,815 to 319,719, which is more than six times the official records. This study found that 15% of residential fire incidents that were identified in health administrative dataset were reported. The residential fire incidents that were not reported occurred mainly in socio-economically disadvantaged areas among males and adults.