Assessing Ecological Vulnerability under Climate Change and Anthropogenic Influence in the Yangtze River Estuarine Island-Chongming Island, China

Abstract

Understanding and assessing ecological vulnerability for estuarine islands are important for maintaining estuarine island ecosystem services and its sustainable development. However, due to its complex fresh water–sea–land interaction mechanism and multiple stressors from both climate change and anthropogenic influence, a comprehensive evaluation of ecological vulnerability for estuarine islands has been limited. Therefore, taking the typical estuary island of Chongming Island as an example, we developed a comprehensive evaluation system of ecological vulnerability for an estuarine island ecosystem based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) conceptual model, and explored the spatial and temporal distribution of ecological vulnerability in 2005 and 2015. The results indicated that the main pressures of Chongming Island from saltwater intrusion intensity and land use intensity were mainly distributed in northern coastal areas and eastern areas of wetland; the ecological vulnerability index (EV) of Chongming Island showed a slight decrease from 2005 to 2015; and three categories of towns based on ecological vulnerability assessment for an eco-island planning and environmental management were identified. Our study provides an effective evaluation system of ecological vulnerability for estuarine islands, which could be helpful for planners and decision makers in improving eco-island planning and environmental management.