Trends in Suicide Mortality in 10 Years around the Great East Japan Earthquake: Analysis of Evacuation and Non-Evacuation Areas in Fukushima Prefecture

Abstract

This study analyzed the suicide mortality rate in 12 municipalities in Fukushima Prefecture designated as evacuation areas following the 2011 nuclear disaster. Changes in suicide rates were examined using an exponential smoothing time series model. In the evacuation areas, the suicide rate of men increased immediately after the disaster and then decreased from 47.8 to 23.1 per 100,000 during about 1½ years after the disaster. However, with the lifting of the evacuation order, it again exceeded that of non-evacuation areas and continued to do so for the next 3 years. On the other hand, the suicide rate in women in the evacuation areas increased later than that in men. These results indicate the need for continuous support following the lifting of the evacuation order. In addition, it is necessary to enhance social networks, which continue to confer protection, because of the isolation of the elderly as highlighted in our previous study.