The Impact of Mobility Restriction Strategies in the Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Modelling the Relation between COVID-19 Health and Community Mobility Data

Abstract

Background: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), particularly mobility restrictions, are mainstay measures for the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. We evaluated the effects of Oman’s mobility restriction strategies to highlight their efficacy in controlling the pandemic. Methods: Accessible national data of daily admissions and deaths were collected from 1 April 2020 to 22 May 2021. Google Community Mobility Report (CMR) data were downloaded for the same period. Among six CMR categories, three were used and reduced to one index—the community mobility index (CMI). We used a generalised linear model with a negative binomial distribution combined with a non-linear distributed lag model to investigate the short-term effects of CMI on the number of admitted PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, controlling for public holidays, day of the week, and Eid/Ramadan days. Results: We demonstrated the feasibility of using CMRs in the evaluation and monitoring of different NPIs, particularly those related to movement restriction. The best movement restriction strategy was a curfew from 7 p.m. to 5 a.m. (level 3 of CMI = 8), which had a total reduction of 35% (95% confidence interval (CI); 25–44%) in new COVID-19 admissions in the following two weeks, and a fatality reduction in the following four weeks by 52% (95% CI; 11–75%). Conclusion: Evening lockdown significantly affected the course of the pandemic in Oman which lines up with similar studies throughout the world.