Trends in Incidence and Mortality of Primary Liver Cancer in Lithuania 1998–2015

Abstract

Background: Recently, reports have suggested that rates of liver cancer have increased during the last decades in developed countries; increasing hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma rates were reported. The aim of this study was to examine time trends in incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer for the period of 1998–2015 in Lithuania by sex, age, and histology. Methods: We examined the incidence of liver cancer from 1998 to 2015 using data from the Lithuanian Cancer Registry. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated by sex, age, and histology. Trends were analyzed using the Joinpoint Regression Program to estimate the annual percent change. Results: A total of 3086 primary liver cancer cases were diagnosed, and 2923 patients died from liver cancer. The total number of liver cancer cases changed from 132 in 1998 to 239 in 2015. Liver cancer incidence rates changed during the study period from 5.02/100,000 in 1998 to 10.54/100,000 in 2015 in men and from 2.43/100,000 in 1998 to 6.25/100,000 in 2015 in women. Annual percentage changes (APCs) in the age-standardized rates over this period were 4.5% for incidence and 3.6% for mortality. Hepatocellular cancer incidence rates were stable from 1998 to 2005 (APC −5.9, p = 0.1) and later increased by 6.7% per year (p < 0.001). Intrahepatic ductal carcinoma incidence increased by 8.9% per year throughout the study period. The rise in incidence was observed in all age groups; however, in age groups < 50 and between 70 and 79 years, observed changes were not statistically significant. For mortality, the significant point of trend change was detected in 2001, where after stable mortality, rates started to increase by 2.4% per year. Conclusions: Primary liver cancer incidence and mortality increased in both sexes in Lithuania. The rise om incidence was observed in both sexes and main histology groups. The increasing incidence trend may be related to the prevalence of main risk factors (alcohol consumption, hepatitis B and C infections. and diabetes).