Land Use Evolution and Land Ecological Security Evaluation Based on AHP-FCE Model: Evidence from China

Abstract

China experienced rapid urbanization and socioeconomic development at an unusual rate during the past four decades. Against such background, land use evolution and land ecological security have both been affected in a volatile way. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the land use and the land ecological security in China. However, the traditional assessment approaches have paid more attention to the environmental and economic factors than the sustainable development of ecology, which cannot comprehensively assess the land ecological security. From the perspective of ecological sustainable development, this study identifies 3 main factors and 17 sub-factors. We also construct a model to integrate the FCE approach with the AHP. The results show that from 2004 to 2017, China’s land use structure was unbalanced. The construction land, mining land, and cultivated land increased rapidly, leading to the shrinkage of ecological land. Moreover, the weight of the sustainable development of resources and the environment, economic sustainable development, social sustainable development are 0.3341, 0.3780, and 0.2879, respectively, demonstrating that economic sustainable development is the most important factor affecting land ecological security. Finally, although the value of comprehensive land ecological security in China has been on the rise from 2004 to 2017, it remains at an unsecured level. Moreover, the value of the sustainable development of resources and the environment has been declining since 2011 and is lower than the values of economic sustainable development and social sustainable development. This study demonstrates that more attention should be paid to enhancing land ecological security, especially promoting the sustainable development of resources and the environment.