Revisiting the Existence of EKC Hypothesis under Different Degrees of Population Aging: Empirical Analysis of Panel Data from 140 Countries

Abstract

Population aging and environmental sustainability have become two hot topics in the world today. To clarify whether the Environmental Kuninets Curve (EKC) hypothesis between the economy and the environment is still valid in the context of population aging is the key to reveal the complexity of social-ecological systems in aging societies. So far, the impact of population aging on the environment has not been clear. To this end, an empirical analysis on the threshold panel model was conducted using panel data of 140 countries from 2000 to 2015. The global findings suggest that economic growth was the main reason for the increase in the ecological footprint at the beginning of aging. However, deepening aging weakened this association between economic and ecological footprints. For high-income countries, with the deepening of aging, the economic and ecological footprints were firstly negatively correlated, then positively correlated, and finally negatively correlated. In other words, the EKC hypothesis remained valid in high-income countries as aging deepened. In contrast, for the low- and middle-income group, the economic-environmental association was not affected by the degree of aging. This result sheds light on the variability of different income country groups in coping with the environmental impacts of aging. For the high-income group, policy makers should pay attention to the aging threshold in socio-ecological management. Only in this way can the development of aging and the ecological environment be reconciled to the greatest extent.